Market notes

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Trade · T2

This chapter carries no prices — on purpose. A number that expires daily is not a reference; the structure beneath it is.

The rhythm

Fishmeal supply breathes with Peru's two fishing seasons, each opened and sized by PRODUCE against stock surveys.^[1] A normal year has a rhythm buyers can plan around: quota announcements, a landing surge, processing, shipment, and the pause between seasons. El Niño years break the rhythm — warm water pushes anchoveta beyond reach, and seasons are cut or cancelled: 2023 delivered a 23-percent drop in global output.^[2]

The demand floor

On the buying side, the cycle to watch is China's inventory: port stocks draw down, aquafeed demand firms, purchasing desks re-enter the market, and Pacific shipments accelerate. With 40 percent of the import share resting on one market, restocking timing ripples back to Chancay and Callao within weeks.^[3]

How to read the market without a price feed

PRODUCE's season announcements — the supply clock, published in Peru's official gazette.
Sea-surface temperature anomalies off Peru — the biology clock, months ahead of any quota decision.
Reported port stocks and import volumes in China — the demand clock, visible in customs data.
Grade spreads rather than absolute prices — when FAQ and super prime converge or invert, something has changed in either supply or demand quality.

Numbers on this site are year-tagged and sourced; for a live quote, the trade has its own terminals. This page is for the shape of the thing.

Sources

We Are Aquaculture: first anchovy season 2026 southern Peru — weareaquaculture.com/news/fisheries/the-first-anchovy-fishing-season-202 (accessed 2026-10-24)
Aquaterra Omega-3: Peru cancels anchovy season — aquaterraomega3.com/peru-cancels-anchovy-season (accessed 2026-10-24)
FAO GLOBFISH species analysis — www.fao.org/in-action/globefish/species-analysis/fishmeal-and-fish-oil/e (accessed 2026-10-24)
FAO GLOBFISH news: 2024 fishmeal exports bounce back, China dominates — www.fao.org/in-action/globefish/news-events/news/news-detail/2024-fishme (accessed 2026-10-24)
USDA FAS GAIN report: China's Fish Meal Sector — apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileNam (accessed 2026-10-24)